Forecasting time series by means of evolutionary algorithms

Proceeding of: 8th International Conference in Parallel Problem Solving from Nature - PPSN VIII , Birmingham, UK, September 18-22, 2004.The time series forecast is a very complex problem, consisting in predicting the behaviour of a data series with only the information of the previous sequence. There is many physical and artificial phenomenon that can be described by time series. The prediction of such phenomenon could be very complex. For instance, in the case of tide forecast, unusually high tides, or sea surges, result from a combination of chaotic climatic elements in conjunction with the more normal, periodic, tidal systems associated with a particular area. Too much variables influence the behaviour of the water level. Our problem is not only to find prediction rules, we also need to discard the noise and select the representative data. Our objective is to generate a set of prediction rules. There are many methods tying to achieve good predictions. In most of the cases this methods look for general rules that are able to predict the whole series. The problem is that usually the time series has local behaviours that dont allow a good level of prediction when using general rules. In this work we present a method for finding local rules able to predict only some zones of the series but achieving better level prediction. This method is based on the evolution of set of rules genetically codified, and following the Michigan approach. For evaluating the proposal, two different domains have been used: an artificial domain widely use in the bibliography (Mackey-Glass series) and a time series corresponding to a natural phenomenon, the water level in Venice Lagoon.Investigation supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science and Technology through the TRACER project under contract TIC2002-04498-C05-

Alarm-Based Prescriptive Process Monitoring

Predictive process monitoring is concerned with the analysis of events produced during the execution of a process in order to predict the future state of ongoing cases thereof. Existing techniques in this field are able to predict, at each step of a case, the likelihood that the case will end up in an undesired outcome. These techniques, however, do not take into account what process workers may do with the generated predictions in order to decrease the likelihood of undesired outcomes. This paper proposes a framework for prescriptive process monitoring, which extends predictive process monitoring approaches with the concepts of alarms, interventions, compensations, and mitigation effects. The framework incorporates a parameterized cost model to assess the cost-benefit tradeoffs of applying prescriptive process monitoring in a given setting. The paper also outlines an approach to optimize the generation of alarms given a dataset and a set of cost model parameters. The proposed approach is empirically evaluated using a range of real-life event logs

Colonial Organization of Mine Labour in Charcas 1 (Present-Day Bolivia) and Its Consequences 2 (Sixteenth to the Seventeenth Centuries)

This article analyses the changes in the organization of labour during the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries in colonial Charcas, present-day Bolivia, focusing on the role that different colonial authorities played in this process and its consequences. The Spanish took advantage of the pre-Hispanic organization of labour from the beginning of their conquest. However, in a colonial context, labour relations changed significantly, and the architect of those alterations was Viceroy Francisco de Toledo. We examine the transformations in mine labour carried out by the Spanish colonial polity; these had a significant effect not only on mining, but also on all labour relations in the southern colonial Andes.Fil: Gil Montero, Raquel. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tandil. Instituto de Geografía, Historia y Ciencias Sociales. Universidad Nacional del Centro de la Provincia de Buenos Aires. Instituto de Geografía, Historia y Ciencias Sociales; ArgentinaFil: Zagalsky, Paula Cecilia. Universidad Nacional de Jujuy; Argentina. Universidad de Buenos Aires; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentin

Which integration policies work? The heterogenous impact of national institutions on immigrants' labour market attainment in Europe

Can specific policies support the economic integration of immigrants? Despite the crucial importance of this question, existing evidence is inconclusive. Using data from the European Social Survey, we estimate the effects of integration and anti-discrimination policies, alongside social expenditure and labor market regulation, on the labor market performance of 6,176 non-European immigrants across 23 European countries. We make three contributions: 1) we investigate the distinct role of discrete policy areas for labor market integration outcomes, 2) we allow for heterogeneous effects of policies on immigrants with different characteristics, and 3) we examine immigrants' occupational attainment while accounting for their selection into employment. We find that immigrants' employment chances are negatively associated with national levels of expenditure on welfare benefits but positively associated with policies facilitating immigrant access to social security. We also find that labor market rigidity is negatively associated with immigrants' occupational attainment, but we find little evidence that policies aimed at supporting the transferability of immigrants' qualifications promote their occupational success. Our results strongly suggest that anti-discrimination policies are important for immigrant economic integration. Yet while these policies are associated with greater occupational success for all female immigrants, they seem to be only positively associated with the occupational attainment of higher-skilled and non-Muslim immigrant men. As this article suggests, anti-discrimination policies can foster immigrants' labor market success, yet these policies currently fail to reach those who face the strongest anti-immigrant sentiments - that is, unskilled male immigrants and Muslim immigrant men.The author(s) disclosed receipt of the following financial support for the research, authorship, and/or publication of this article: This study received financial support from the project New Approaches to Immigration Research, NewAIR, funded by the Spanish State Research Agency (CSO2016-78452)

Understanding the religious behaviour of Muslims in the Netherlands and the UK

The position of Muslims in Western societies is the subject of intense study and debate. However, remarkably little attention has been paid to the practice of European Muslims and how Muslim religiosity relates to conventional measures of social and economic integration. In this paper we draw on theories of secularization, assimilation, revitalization and integration to explore the correlates of attendance at religious meetings for Muslims of different backgrounds in the Netherlands and the UK. We conclude that patterns of religiosity and secularisation cannot be generalised across national contexts

Girls like pink : explaining sex-typed occupational aspirations amongst young children

There is a high degree of sex-typing in young children's occupational aspirations and this has consequences for subsequent occupational segregation. Sociologists typically attribute early sex-differences in occupational preferences to gender socialization. Yet we still know surprisingly little about the mechanisms involved in the intergenerational transmission of sex-typical preferences and there is considerable theoretical controversy regarding the role of individual agency in the process of preference formation. This study analyzes the determinants of sex-typed occupational aspirations amongst British children aged between 11 and 15. We specify different mechanisms involved in the transmission of sex-typical preferences and propose an innovative definition of individual agency that is anchored in observable psychological traits linked to self-direction. This allows us to perform a simultaneous test of socialization and agency predictors of occupational sex-typing. We find that parental influences on occupational preferences operate mainly through three distinctive channels: 1) the effect that parental socio-economic resources have on the scope of children's occupational aspirations, 2) children's direct imitation of parental occupations, and 3) children's learning of sex-typed roles via the observation of parental behavior. We also find a strong net effect of children's own psychological predispositions -self-esteem in particular- on the incidence of sex-typical occupational preferences. Yet large differences in the occupational aspirations of girls and boys remain unexplained

Transient evoked otoacoustic emissions testing for screening of sensorineural deafness in puppies

<p><b>Background:</b> Transient evoked otoacoustic emissions (TEOAE) are widely used for human neonatal deafness screening, but have not been reported for clinical use in dogs.</p> <p><b>Hypothesis/Objectives:</b> To investigate the feasibility of TEOAE testing in conscious puppies and the ability of TEOAE testing to correctly identify deaf and hearing ears, as defined by brainstem auditory evoked response (BAER).</p> <p><b>Animals:</b> Forty puppies from 10 litters.</p> <p><b>Methods:</b> Prospective study on puppies presented for hearing assessment as part of a congenital deafness BAER screening program. Hearing status was determined using BAER. TEOAE testing was performed after the BAER assessment and the results of the TEOAE testing were compared with the hearing status for each ear. Parameters were tested for normality using the D'Agostino Pearson test and comparisons between the deaf and hearing ears were made using Mann-Whitney tests.</p> <p><b>Results:</b> TEOAE testing was readily performed in puppies presented for congenital deafness screening. Using analysis parameters based on those used in human neonatal hearing screening, TEOAE testing correctly identified all deaf ears, as defined by BAER testing, with a sensitivity of 100% (95% CI: 56-100%) for diagnosing deafness and specificity of 78% (95% CI: 66-87%).</p> <p><b>Conclusions and Clinical Importance:</b> TEOAE testing is an effective screening modality for identifying congenital sensorineural deafness in dogs. In light of the simpler and less expensive equipment, TEOAE testing has the potential to improve access to hearing screening and through this reduce the prevalence of congenital deafness in the dog.</p&gt

Immediate performance of self-etching versus system adhesives with multiple light-activated restoratives

Objectives: The purpose of this study was to evaluate the performance of both single and double applications of (Adper Prompt L-Pop) self-etching dental adhesive, when used with three classes of light-activated restorative materials, in comparison to the performance of each restorative system adhesive. Evaluation parameters to be considered for the adhesive systems were (a) immediate marginal adaptation (or gap formation) in tooth cavities, (b) free setting shrinkage-strain determined by the immediate marginal gap-width in a non-bonding Teflon cavity, and (c) their immediate shear bond-strengths to enamel and to dentin. Methods: The maximum marginal gap-width and the opposing-width (if any) in the tooth cavities and in the Teflon cavities were measured immediately (3 min) after light-activation. The shear bond-strengths to enamel and to dentin were also measured at 3 min. Results: For light-activated restorative materials during early setting (&#60;3 min), application of Adper Prompt L-Pop exhibited generally superior marginal adaptation to most system adhesives. But there was no additional benefit from double application. The marginal-gaps in tooth cavities and the marginal-gaps in Teflon cavities were highly correlated (r=0.86–0.89, p&#60;0.02–0.01). For enamel and dentin shear bond-strengths, there were no significant differences between single and double applications, for all materials tested except Toughwell and Z 250 with enamel. Significance: Single application of a self-etch adhesive was a feasible and beneficial alternative to system adhesives for several classes of restorative. Marginal gap-widths in tooth cavities correlated more strongly with free shrinkage-strain magnitudes than with bond-strengths to tooth structure.</p

Ethical, legal, and social implications of learning health systems

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/141917/1/lrh210051-sup-0001-Supplementary_info.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/141917/2/lrh210051.pdfhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/141917/3/lrh210051_am.pd